DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-505-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84956652709
论文题名: Development and verification of a real-time stochastic precipitation nowcasting system for urban hydrology in Belgium
作者: Foresti L ; , Reyniers M ; , Seed A ; , Delobbe L
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 1 起始页码: 505
结束页码: 527
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Hydraulic models
; Hydrology
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Radar
; Stochastic systems
; Convective cell
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Forecast uncertainty
; Forecast verifications
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Rainfall structures
; Stochastic perturbations
; Urban hydrology
; Forecasting
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; hydraulics
; Lagrangian analysis
; nowcasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; real time
; spatiotemporal analysis
; stochasticity
; uncertainty analysis
; urban atmosphere
; Belgium
; East Flanders
; Flemish Brabant
; Ghent
; Louvain
英文摘要: The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is implemented in real-time at the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium. The main idea behind STEPS is to quantify the forecast uncertainty by adding stochastic perturbations to the deterministic Lagrangian extrapolation of radar images. The stochastic perturbations are designed to account for the unpredictable precipitation growth and decay processes and to reproduce the dynamic scaling of precipitation fields, i.e., the observation that large-scale rainfall structures are more persistent and predictable than small-scale convective cells. This paper presents the development, adaptation and verification of the STEPS system for Belgium (STEPS-BE). STEPS-BE provides in real-time 20-member ensemble precipitation nowcasts at 1 km and 5 min resolutions up to 2 h lead time using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. In the context of the PLURISK project, STEPS forecasts were generated to be used as input in sewer system hydraulic models for nowcasting urban inundations in the cities of Ghent and Leuven. Comprehensive forecast verification was performed in order to detect systematic biases over the given urban areas and to analyze the reliability of probabilistic forecasts for a set of case studies in 2013 and 2014. The forecast biases over the cities of Leuven and Ghent were found to be small, which is encouraging for future integration of STEPS nowcasts into the hydraulic models. Probabilistic forecasts of exceeding 0.5 mm hg'1 are reliable up to 60-90 min lead time, while the ones of exceeding 5.0 mm hg'1 are only reliable up to 30 min. The STEPS ensembles are slightly under-dispersive and represent only 75-90 % of the forecast errors. © 2016 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78926
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Foresti L,, Reyniers M,, Seed A,et al. Development and verification of a real-time stochastic precipitation nowcasting system for urban hydrology in Belgium[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(1)