DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039041259
论文题名: Precipitation extremes on multiple timescales - Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model and intensity-duration-frequency curves
作者: Ritschel C ; , Ulbrich U ; , Névir P ; , Rust H ; W
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 12 起始页码: 6501
结束页码: 6517
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Parameter estimation
; Risk assessment
; Stochastic systems
; Time series
; Wind effects
; Daily precipitations
; Generalized extreme value distribution
; Hydrological modelling
; Intensity duration frequencies
; Intensity-duration-frequency curves
; Poisson cluster process
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation time series
; Stochastic models
; canonical analysis
; hydrological modeling
; model validation
; numerical model
; Poisson ratio
; precipitation intensity
; return period
; risk assessment
; simulation
; time series analysis
; Berlin
; Dahlem
; Germany
英文摘要: For several hydrological modelling tasks, precipitation time series with a high (i.e. sub-daily) resolution are indispensable. The data are, however, not always available, and thus model simulations are used to compensate. A canonical class of stochastic models for sub-daily precipitation are Poisson cluster processes, with the original Bartlett-Lewis (OBL) model as a prominent representative. The OBL model has been shown to well reproduce certain characteristics found in observations. Our focus is on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships, which are of particular interest in risk assessment. Based on a high-resolution precipitation time series (5 min) from Berlin-Dahlem, OBL model parameters are estimated and IDF curves are obtained on the one hand directly from the observations and on the other hand from OBL model simulations. Comparing the resulting IDF curves suggests that the OBL model is able to reproduce the main features of IDF statistics across several durations but cannot capture rare events (here an event with a return period larger than 1000 years on the hourly timescale). In this paper, IDF curves are estimated based on a parametric model for the duration dependence of the scale parameter in the generalized extreme value distribution; this allows us to obtain a consistent set of curves over all durations. We use the OBL model to investigate the validity of this approach based on simulated long time series. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78958
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Ritschel C,, Ulbrich U,, Névir P,et al. Precipitation extremes on multiple timescales - Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model and intensity-duration-frequency curves[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(12)