DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067055
论文题名: The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation
作者: Bracegirdle T.J. ; Stephenson D.B. ; Turner J. ; Phillips T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8279
EISSN: 1944-8010
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 24 起始页码: 10832
结束页码: 10839
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctic
; climate
; CMIP5
; emergent constraint
; sea ice
; surface mass balance
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Ice
; Sea ice
; Antarctic
; Climate
; CMIP5
; Emergent constraint
; Surface mass balance
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; mass balance
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea ice
; spatiotemporal analysis
; surface temperature
; temperature
; twenty first century
; uncertainty analysis
; Antarctica
英文摘要: Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070-2099) and historical (1970-1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and -0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955172752&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067055&partnerID=40&md5=b29a9b9a0b4ee93d8bd874877c3d952a
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7895
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bracegirdle T.J.,Stephenson D.B.,Turner J.,et al. The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).