DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-6345-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85038434032
论文题名: Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes
作者: Guerrero J ; -L ; , Pernica P ; , Wheater H ; , MacKay M ; , Spence C
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 12 起始页码: 6345
结束页码: 6362
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: C++ (programming language)
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Computer software
; Glues
; Gluing
; Heat flux
; Lakes
; Light extinction
; Open source software
; Open systems
; Problem solving
; Sensitivity analysis
; Software engineering
; Continuous measurements
; Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
; Light extinction coefficients
; Parameter sensitivity analysis
; Posterior likelihood
; Problem solving environments
; Sensible and latent heat fluxes
; Turbulent transports
; Uncertainty analysis
; climate change
; climate modeling
; diurnal variation
; extinction coefficient
; heat flux
; lake
; land surface
; numerical model
; one-dimensional modeling
; parameter estimation
; seasonal variation
; sensitivity analysis
; software
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere-heat-exchange fluxes-is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue-different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results-the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty. © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78966
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Global Institute for Water Security, National Hydrology Research Centre, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, Oslo, Norway; Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Str., Toronto, ON, Canada; Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Guerrero J,-L,, Pernica P,et al. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(12)