DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-5911-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85036451415
论文题名: The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: Test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data
作者: Le Bihan G ; , Payrastre O ; , Gaume E ; , Moncoulon D ; , Pons F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 11 起始页码: 5911
结束页码: 5928
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Distributed computer systems
; Forecasting
; Insurance
; Land use
; Radar cross section
; Radar measurement
; Rain
; Risk assessment
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Water levels
; Direct assessment
; Distributed rainfall-runoff models
; Flood magnitudes
; Forecasting system
; Hydraulic methods
; Insurance claims
; Local references
; Validation results
; Floods
; data set
; database
; flash flood
; flood forecasting
; hydraulics
; map
; model validation
; monitoring
; monitoring system
; radar
; rainfall
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; river system
; France
英文摘要: Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall-runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes-typically discharges or return periods- A t selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies). The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall-runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods. © 2017 Author. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78984
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: IFSTTAR, GERS, Bouguenais, France; CCR, 157 boulevard Haussmann, Paris, France; Cerema, Direction Méditerraneé, 30 rue Albert Einstein, Aix-en-Provence, France
Recommended Citation:
Le Bihan G,, Payrastre O,, Gaume E,et al. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: Test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(11)