DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030559857
论文题名: Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations
作者: Turner S ; W ; D ; , Bennett J ; C ; , Robertson D ; E ; , Galelli S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 9 起始页码: 4841
结束页码: 4859
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Reservoirs (water)
; Stream flow
; Water levels
; Water resources
; Water supply
; Bootstrap resampling
; Complex relationships
; Forecast performance
; Reservoir operation
; Storage operations
; Streamflow forecast
; Water resources systems
; Water supply reservoirs
; Forecasting
; benchmarking
; bootstrapping
; buffering
; complexity
; design
; forecasting method
; performance assessment
; reservoir
; seasonal variation
; streamflow
; water supply
英文摘要: Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made-namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives. © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79044
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; SUTD-MIT International Design Centre, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore; CSIRO, Melbourne Clayton, VIC, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery PointTAS, Australia; Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore
Recommended Citation:
Turner S,W,D,et al. Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(9)