DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4711-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029741084
论文题名: Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile
作者: Delorit J ; , Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya E ; , Block P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 9 起始页码: 4711
结束页码: 4725
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; International law
; Investments
; Landforms
; Managers
; Oceanography
; Reservoirs (water)
; Stream flow
; Surface waters
; Water resources
; Water supply
; Allocation efficiencies
; Deterministic forecasts
; Infrastructure investment
; Ranked probability skill scores
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Statistical modeling
; Statistical prediction model
; Streamflow forecasting
; Produced Water
; precipitation (climatology)
; reservoir
; sea surface temperature
; semiarid region
; streamflow
; water management
; water supply
; Chile
; Coquimbo
; Elqui River
; Elqui Valley
英文摘要: In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited-capacity reservoir to allocate 25 000 water rights. Delayed infrastructure investment forces water managers to address demand-based allocation strategies, particularly in dry years, which are realized through reductions in the volume associated with each water right. Skillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform managers with an indication of future conditions to guide reservoir allocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models of October-January (growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times associated with manager and user decision points, and links predictions with a reservoir allocation tool. Skillful results (streamflow forecasts outperform climatology) are produced for short lead times (1 September: ranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 0.31, categorical hit skill score of 61 %). At longer lead times, climatological skill exceeds forecast skill due to fewer observations of precipitation. However, coupling the 1 September statistical forecast model with a sea surface temperature phase and strength statistical model allows for equally skillful categorical streamflow forecasts to be produced for a 1 May lead, triggered for 60 % of years (1950-2015), suggesting forecasts need not be strictly deterministic to be useful for water rights holders. An early (1 May) categorical indication of expected conditions is reinforced with a deterministic forecast (1 September) as more observations of local variables become available. The reservoir allocation model is skillful at the 1 September lead (categorical hit skill score of 53 %); skill improves to 79 % when categorical allocation prediction certainty exceeds 80 %. This result implies that allocation efficiency may improve when forecasts are integrated into reservoir decision frameworks. The methods applied here advance the understanding of the mechanisms and timing responsible for moisture transport to the Elqui Valley and provide a unique application of streamflow forecasting in the prediction of water right allocations. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79051
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Industrial and Civil Engineering, University of la Serena, La-Serena, Chile
Recommended Citation:
Delorit J,, Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya E,, Block P. Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(9)