globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4433-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029158222
论文题名:
Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series
作者: Thorndahl S; , Korup Andersen A; , Larsen A; B
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期:9
起始页码: 4433
结束页码: 4448
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Hydrology ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Sampling ; Stochastic systems ; Climate projection ; Model parameters ; Original series ; Rainfall patterns ; Statistical properties ; Summer precipitation ; Synthetic rainfalls ; Target prediction ; Rain ; climate change ; design ; environmental history ; extreme event ; hydrology ; numerical model ; rainfall ; sampling ; statistical analysis ; stochasticity
英文摘要: Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme events. Due to climate change, however, these series are most likely not representative of future rainfall. There is therefore a demand for climate-projected long rainfall series, which can represent a specific region and rainfall pattern as well as fulfil requirements of long rainfall series which includes climate changes projected to a specific future period.

This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads to a large number of projected series. In order to evaluate and select the rainfall series with matching statistical properties as the key target projections, an extensive evaluation procedure is developed. © Author(s) 2017.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79068
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark; Niras A/S, Aalborg, Denmark

Recommended Citation:
Thorndahl S,, Korup Andersen A,, Larsen A,et al. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(9)
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