DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066929
论文题名: Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century
作者: Wanders N. ; Wada Y.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8291
EISSN: 1944-8022
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 24 起始页码: 10689
结束页码: 10695
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AAO
; climate oscillations
; discharge
; ENSO
; NAO
; PDO
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Discharge (fluid mechanics)
; Forecasting
; AAO
; Climate oscillation
; ENSO
; NAO
; PDO
; Climatology
; Antarctic Oscillation
; climate signal
; correlation
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; forecasting method
; hydrological modeling
; long-term change
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; prediction
; river discharge
; time series
; twentieth century
; twenty first century
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955213016&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066929&partnerID=40&md5=901adb6ebc05d284e7172ce926d32d49
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7907
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wanders N.,Wada Y.. Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).