DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4073-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85024493655
论文题名: Waning habitats due to climate change: The effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish
作者: Santiago J ; M ; , Muñoz-Mas R ; , Solana-Gutiérrez J ; , García De Jalón D ; , Alonso C ; , Martínez-Capel F ; , Pórtoles J ; , Monjo R ; , Ribalaygua J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 8 起始页码: 4073
结束页码: 4101
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aquatic ecosystems
; Aquifers
; Climate models
; Ecosystems
; Fish
; Fisheries
; Geology
; Hydrogeology
; Linear regression
; Population distribution
; Regression analysis
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Global climate model
; Hydrologic response
; Natural distribution
; Non-linear regression method
; Precipitation patterns
; Seasonal differences
; Stream temperature models
; Stream temperatures
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate effect
; edge effect
; global climate
; hydrological response
; mountain region
; population distribution
; precipitation (climatology)
; river basin
; salmonid
; streamflow
; water temperature
; Spain
; Salmo trutta
英文摘要: Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. -49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 °C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 °C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79086
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Laboratorio de Hidrobiología, ETSI Montes, Forestal y Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Camino de las Moreras s/n, Madrid, Spain; Institut d'Investigació per a la Gestió Integrada de Zones Costaneres (IGIC), Universitat Politècnica de València, C/ Paranimf 1, Grau de Gandia, Valencia, Spain; Fundación para la Investigación del Clima, C/ Tremps 11., Madrid, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Santiago J,M,, Muñoz-Mas R,et al. Waning habitats due to climate change: The effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(8)