DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-2923-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020885767
论文题名: Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871
作者: Caillouet L ; , Vidal J ; -P ; , Sauquet E ; , Devers A ; , Graff B
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 6 起始页码: 2923
结束页码: 2951
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Hydrology
; Runoff
; Stream flow
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Climate change adaptation
; Climate variability
; Hydrological modelling
; Natural catchments
; Reference evapotranspiration
; Spatio-temporal events
; Variable thresholds
; Climate change
; algorithm
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; data set
; downscaling
; extreme event
; hydrological modeling
; low flow
; reconstruction
; spatiotemporal analysis
; streamflow
; twentieth century
; France
英文摘要: The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989–1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France. © 2017 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79151
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Irstea, UR HHLY, Hydrology and Hydraulics Research Unit, 5 rue de la Doua, Villeurbanne Cedex, France; Compagnie Nationale du Rhône (CNR), 2 rue André Bonin, Lyon, France
Recommended Citation:
Caillouet L,, Vidal J,-P,et al. Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(6)