A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods
Behavioral research
; Catchments
; Decision making
; Electric power transmission networks
; Energy utilization
; Forecasting
; Runoff
; Smart power grids
; Decision making process
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Mitigation measures
; Numerical weather prediction models
; Postprocessing methods
; Probability forecasts
; Spatial and temporal resolutions
; Waste water systems
; Weather forecasting
; coupling
; decision making
; drainage
; forecasting method
; hydrological modeling
; low flow
; numerical model
; optimization
; perturbation
; precipitation assessment
; smart grid
; urban area
; urban drainage
; wastewater
英文摘要:
Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage-wastewater systems (IUDWSs) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar extrapolation. However, forecasts are inevitably uncertain, and fine resolution is especially challenging for NWP. This uncertainty is commonly addressed in meteorology with ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers and hence tools are necessary to provide insight on ensemble forecast usage and to support the rationality of decisions (i.e. forecasts are uncertain and therefore errors will be made; decision makers need tools to justify their choices, demonstrating that these choices are beneficial in the long run).
Krüger Veolia, Søborg, Denmark; Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark; WaterZerv, Environmental Services, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Courdent V,, Grum M,, Munk-Nielsen T,et al. A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(5)