DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015438450
论文题名: Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices
作者: Crochemore L ; , Ramos M ; -H ; , Pappenberger F ; , Perrin C
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 3 起始页码: 1573
结束页码: 1591
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Drought
; Reservoir management
; Risk assessment
; Stream flow
; Weather forecasting
; Cumulative precipitation
; General circulation model
; Precipitation forecast
; Precipitation indices
; Seasonal precipitations
; Streamflow forecast
; Streamflow forecasting
; Streamflow prediction
; Forecasting
; climatology
; drought
; forecasting method
; general circulation model
; low flow
; precipitation assessment
; seasonality
; streamflow
; France
英文摘要: Many fields, such as drought-risk assessment or reservoir management, can benefit from long-range streamflow forecasts. Climatology has long been used in long-range streamflow forecasting. Conditioning methods have been proposed to select or weight relevant historical time series from climatology. They are often based on general circulation model (GCM) outputs that are specific to the forecast date due to the initialisation of GCMs on current conditions. This study investigates the impact of conditioning methods on the performance of seasonal streamflow forecasts. Four conditioning statistics based on seasonal forecasts of cumulative precipitation and the standardised precipitation index were used to select relevant traces within historical streamflows and precipitation respectively. This resulted in eight conditioned streamflow forecast scenarios. These scenarios were compared to the climatology of historical streamflows, the ensemble streamflow prediction approach and the streamflow forecasts obtained from ECMWF System 4 precipitation forecasts. The impact of conditioning was assessed in terms of forecast sharpness (spread), reliability, overall performance and low-flow event detection. Results showed that conditioning past observations on seasonal precipitation indices generally improves forecast sharpness, but may reduce reliability, with respect to climatology. Conversely, conditioned ensembles were more reliable but less sharp than streamflow forecasts derived from System 4 precipitation. Forecast attributes from conditioned and unconditioned ensembles are illustrated for a case of drought-risk forecasting: the 2003 drought in France. In the case of low-flow forecasting, conditioning results in ensembles that can better assess weekly deficit volumes and durations over a wider range of lead times. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79223
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: IRSTEA, Catchment Hydrology Research Group, UR HBAN, Antony, France; ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Hydrology Research Unit, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Crochemore L,, Ramos M,-H,et al. Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(3)