DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-571-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85011035323
论文题名: Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals
作者: Slaets J ; I ; F ; , Piepho H ; -P ; , Schmitter P ; , Hilger T ; , Cadisch G
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 1 起始页码: 571
结束页码: 588
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Environmental impact
; Financial data processing
; Forecasting
; Reservoirs (water)
; Sediments
; Statistical methods
; Water quality
; Bootstrap confidence interval
; Discharge predictions
; Environmental process
; Irrigation channels
; Reservoir sedimentation
; Sediment concentration
; Temporal correlations
; Water quality models
; Soil pollution
; bootstrapping
; confidence interval
; correlation
; discharge
; environmental effect
; irrigation system
; sediment analysis
; sediment yield
; siltation
; soil fertility
; uncertainty analysis
; water quality
; watershed
; Viet Nam
英文摘要: Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95% confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79278
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Plant Production and Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstrasse 13, Stuttgart, Germany; Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Crop Science, University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, Stuttgart, Germany; International Water Management Institute, Nile Basin and East Africa Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Recommended Citation:
Slaets J,I,F,et al. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(1)