globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067086
论文题名:
Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies
作者: Marshall A.G.; Hendon H.H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8311
EISSN: 1944-8042
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:24
起始页码: 10913
结束页码: 10919
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australian monsoon ; climate variability ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; rainfall ; subseasonal prediction ; wind
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Climatology ; Rain ; Wind ; Active and break monsoons ; Australian monsoon ; Australian summer monsoons ; Climate variability ; Dominant contributions ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; Monsoon rainfall ; Ocean-atmosphere models ; Forecasting ; anticyclone ; climate change ; cyclone ; easterly wave ; forecasting method ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; monsoon ; precipitation (climatology) ; prediction ; seasonal variation ; summer ; westerly ; zonal wind ; Australia
英文摘要: Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies is assessed using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from version 2 of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia. Active and break monsoon rainfall episodes are associated with large-scale cyclonic westerly and anticyclonic easterly winds, respectively, for which the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) makes a dominant contribution and thus is a source of predictability. Although the forecast model can predict the local large-scale zonal wind anomalies for lead times beyond 4 weeks, predictive skill of the monsoon rainfall anomalies is limited to about 2 weeks. We show that improving the prediction of the MJO and its local expression in the summer monsoon leads to improved monsoon rainfall predictions at multiweek timescales. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955196639&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067086&partnerID=40&md5=9fe72a9ca5680c62c5da4a37c3c3d1a1
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7927
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Marshall A.G.,Hendon H.H.. Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).
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