DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL067086
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论文题名: | Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies |
作者: | Marshall A.G.; Hendon H.H.
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刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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ISSN: | 0094-8311
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EISSN: | 1944-8042
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出版年: | 2015
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卷: | 42, 期:24 | 起始页码: | 10913
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结束页码: | 10919
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语种: | 英语
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英文关键词: | Australian monsoon
; climate variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; rainfall
; subseasonal prediction
; wind
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Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Rain
; Wind
; Active and break monsoons
; Australian monsoon
; Australian summer monsoons
; Climate variability
; Dominant contributions
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Monsoon rainfall
; Ocean-atmosphere models
; Forecasting
; anticyclone
; climate change
; cyclone
; easterly wave
; forecasting method
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; summer
; westerly
; zonal wind
; Australia
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英文摘要: | Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies is assessed using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from version 2 of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia. Active and break monsoon rainfall episodes are associated with large-scale cyclonic westerly and anticyclonic easterly winds, respectively, for which the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) makes a dominant contribution and thus is a source of predictability. Although the forecast model can predict the local large-scale zonal wind anomalies for lead times beyond 4 weeks, predictive skill of the monsoon rainfall anomalies is limited to about 2 weeks. We show that improving the prediction of the MJO and its local expression in the summer monsoon leads to improved monsoon rainfall predictions at multiweek timescales. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955196639&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067086&partnerID=40&md5=9fe72a9ca5680c62c5da4a37c3c3d1a1
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Citation statistics: |
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资源类型: | 期刊论文
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标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7927
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Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia
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Recommended Citation: |
Marshall A.G.,Hendon H.H.. Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).
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