Climate models
; Stochastic systems
; Time series
; Climate change impact
; Current resolution
; High temporal resolution
; Hydrological models
; Precipitation time series
; Reliable estimates
; Seasonal precipitations
; Urban water systems
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; coal supply
; distribution system
; hydrological modeling
; infrastructure planning
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation assessment
; seasonality
; testing method
; timescale
; urban planning
; water management
; water supply
英文摘要:
Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill in meeting the expectations to climate change in extremes at the event scale when evaluated at different timescales from the minute to the daily scale. The methodology also shows good skill with respect to representing expected changes of seasonal precipitation. The methodology is very robust against the actual magnitude of the expected changes as well as the direction of the changes (increase or decrease), even for situations where the extremes are increasing for seasons that in general should have a decreasing trend in precipitation. The methodology can provide planners with valuable time series representing future climate that can be used as input to urban hydrological models and give better estimates of climate change impacts on these systems. � Author(s) 2017.
Technical University of Denmark, Global Decision Support Initiative, Lyngby, Denmark; Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Lyngby, Denmark; Technical University of Denmark, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Lyngby, Denmark; Ramboll Danmark A/S, Department of Climate Adaptation and Green Infrastructure, Copenhagen, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Jomo Danielsen S�rup H,, Georgiadis S,, B�low Gregersen I,et al. Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(1)