| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL067118
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| 论文题名: | Hail potential in Europe based on a regional climate model hindcast |
| 作者: | Mohr S.; Kunz M.; Geyer B.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8313
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| EISSN: | 1944-8044
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:24 | | 起始页码: | 10904
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| 结束页码: | 10912
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate variability
; Europe
; hail
; logistic regression
; temporal variability
; thunderstorm
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| Scopus关键词: | Precipitation (meteorology)
; Storms
; Thunderstorms
; Climate variability
; Europe
; Logistic regressions
; Meteorological parameters
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Observational study
; Regional climate modeling
; Temporal variability
; Climate models
; atmospheric modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; frequency analysis
; hail
; hindcasting
; logistics
; meteorology
; regional climate
; regression analysis
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temporal variation
; time series analysis
; Europe
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| 英文摘要: | Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of appropriate observation systems, comprehensive, reliable, and consistent information about hail frequency and intensity in Europe is not available. To overcome this constraint, we developed a logistic hail model that quantifies the potential of the atmosphere to form hailstorms. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. This paper presents the application of an adjusted version of the logistic model with the objective being to estimate the hail potential across Europe based on dynamically downscaled National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research1 reanalysis over a long-term period of 60 years (1951-2010). The model output, in terms of the potential hail index (PHI), identified several hot spots that are well known from other observational studies. Time series of the PHI over the 60 year period show a high correlation at different sites across Europe and high annual and multiannual variability, but no overall trend. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955212822&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067118&partnerID=40&md5=da00ffb5eef94c4fbcff18e2be84e9a1
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7929
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Mohr S.,Kunz M.,Geyer B.. Hail potential in Europe based on a regional climate model hindcast[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).
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