Climate models
; Water conservation
; Water management
; Watersheds
; Calibration and validations
; Future climate scenarios
; General circulation model
; Mean annual precipitation
; Spatial and temporal scale
; Statistical downscaling
; Statistical downscaling model (SDSM)
; Sustainable water management
; Climate change
英文摘要:
Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range.
Department of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Faculty of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technische Universität München, Arcisstrasse 21, Munich, Germany; Amhara National Regional State Water, Irrigation and Energy Development Bureau, Bahirdar, Ethiopia
Recommended Citation:
Fenta Mekonnen D,, Disse M. Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(4)