DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-1411-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042705728
论文题名: Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin
作者: Tsarouchi G ; , Buytaert W
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 2 起始页码: 1411
结束页码: 1435
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Land use
; Markov processes
; Satellite imagery
; Soil moisture
; Stream flow
; Water resources
; Climate change impact
; Climate change scenarios
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emissions scenarios
; Hydrological response
; Hydrological variables
; Land surface models
; Markov chain simulation
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; flooding
; flow modeling
; hydrological response
; land use change
; Landsat
; river basin
; satellite imagery
; water resource
; Ganges Basin
; India
英文摘要: Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63% under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met. © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79378
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Tsarouchi G,, Buytaert W. Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(2)