DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-463-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041177075
论文题名: The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments
作者: Van Tiel M ; , Teuling A ; J ; , Wanders N ; , Vis M ; J ; P ; , Stahl K ; , Van Loon A ; F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 463
结束页码: 485
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Drought
; Reservoirs (water)
; Runoff
; Stream flow
; Climate variability
; Drought characteristics
; Drought thresholds
; Future projections
; Historical periods
; Modelling strategies
; Threshold approach
; Variable thresholds
; Climate change
; catchment
; climate change
; drought
; glacier
; glacier dynamics
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; reservoir
; streamflow
; temperature effect
; threshold
; Alaska
; Nigardsbreen
; Norway
; Sogn og Fjordane
; United States
; Gulo gulo
英文摘要: Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79417
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Van Tiel M,, Teuling A,J,et al. The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(1)