DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-727-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041411536
论文题名: Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes
作者: Cross D ; , Onof C ; , Winter H ; , Bernardara P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 727
结束页码: 756
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Flood control
; Gages
; Rain gages
; Risk perception
; Flood mitigation
; Process representation
; Rainfall extremes
; Rainfall generation
; Rainfall modelling
; Rectangular pulse
; Risk quantification
; Traditional techniques
; Rain
; drainage
; estimation method
; extreme event
; flood control
; gauge
; hydrological modeling
; model
; precipitation assessment
; rainfall
; risk assessment
; Germany
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60g min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed. © 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79449
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; EDF Energy RandD UK Centre, Interchange, 81-85 Station Road, Croydon, United Kingdom; CEREA, EDF RandD, ENPC, 6 quai Watier, Chatou, France
Recommended Citation:
Cross D,, Onof C,, Winter H,et al. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(1)