DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2013.09.003
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897871370
论文题名: Modeling and forecasting MODIS-based fire potential index on a pixelbasis using time series models
作者: Huesca M ; , Litago J ; , Merino-de-Miguel S ; , Cicuendez-López-Ocaña V ; , Palacios-Orueta A
刊名: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
ISSN: 15698432
出版年: 2014
卷: 26, 期: 1 起始页码: 363
结束页码: 376
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Autoregressive models
; MODIS
; Time series analysis
Scopus关键词: forecasting method
; forest fire
; MODIS
; numerical model
; pixel
; time series analysis
; Navarra
; Spain
英文摘要: The aim of this research was to model and forecast MODIS-based Fire Potential Index (FPI), implementedwith Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), as a proxy of forest fire risk, in Navarre (Spain) on apixel basis using time series models with a forecasting horizon of one year.We forecast FPINDWIfor 2009 based on time series from 2001 to 2008. In the modeling process, theBox and Jenkins methodology was applied in two consecutive stages. First, several generic models basedon average FPINDWItime series from different "fuel type-ecoregion" combinations were developed. In asecond stage, the generic models were implemented at the pixel level for the entire study region. Theusefulness of the proposed autoregressive (AR) model, using the original data and introducing significantseasonal AR parameters, was demonstrated.Results show that 93.18% of the estimated models (EMs) are highly accurate and present good fore-casting ability, precisely reproducing the original FPINDWIdynamics. Best results were found in theMediterranean areas dominated by grasslands; slightly lower accuracies were found in the temperateand alpine regions, and especially in the transition areas between them and the Mediterranean region. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79795
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Departamento de Silvopascicultura, ETSIM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Estadística, ETSIA, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Topografía, EUITF, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Huesca M,, Litago J,, Merino-de-Miguel S,et al. Modeling and forecasting MODIS-based fire potential index on a pixelbasis using time series models[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2014-01-01,26(1)