DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.007
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880262682
论文题名: Bayesian hierarchical ANOVA of regional climate-change projections from NARCCAP phase II
作者: Kang E ; L ; , Cressie N
刊名: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
ISSN: 15698432
出版年: 2013
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 3
结束页码: 15
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Posterior distribution
; Regional climate model (RCM)
; Spatial Random Effects (SRE) model
; Spatial statistics
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; numerical model
; regional climate
; spatial variation
; variance analysis
; North America
英文摘要: We consider current (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) average seasonal surface temperature fields from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Phase II experiment. We analyze the difference between future and current temperature fields for each RCM and include the factor of season, the factor of RCM, and their interaction in a two-way ANOVA model. Noticing that classical ANOVA approaches do not account for spatial dependence, we assume that the main effects and interactions are spatial processes that follow the Spatial Random Effects (SRE) model. This enables us to model the spatial variability through fixed spatial basis functions, and the computations associated with an ANOVA of high-resolution RCM outputs can be carried out without having to resort to approximations. We call the resulting model a spatial two-way ANOVA model. We implement it in a Bayesian framework, and we investigate the variability of climate-change projections over seasons, RCMs, and their interactions. We find that projected temperatures in North America are credibly higher, that the associated warming effects differ in spatial areas and in seasons, and that they are of much larger magnitude than the variability between RCMs. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79824
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States; The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kang E,L,, Cressie N. Bayesian hierarchical ANOVA of regional climate-change projections from NARCCAP phase II[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2013-01-01,22(1)