DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2012.04.005
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84883049310
论文题名: On the difficulty to delimit disease risk hot spots
作者: Charras-Garrido M ; , Azizi L ; , Forbes F ; , Doyle S ; , Peyrard N ; , Abrial D
刊名: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
ISSN: 15698432
出版年: 2013
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 99
结束页码: 105
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Classification
; Disease mapping
; Epidemiology
; Generalized Potts model
; Hidden Markov random field
; Spatial clustering
Scopus关键词: bovine spongiform encephalopathy
; classification
; cluster analysis
; disease
; epidemiology
; mapping
; Markov chain
; numerical model
; risk assessment
; spatial analysis
; Animalia
英文摘要: Representing the health state of a region is a helpful tool to highlight spatial heterogeneity and localize high risk areas. For ease of interpretation and to determine where to apply control procedures, we need to clearly identify and delineate homogeneous regions in terms of disease risk, and in particular disease risk hot spots. However, even if practical purposes require the delineation of different risk classes, such a classification does not correspond to a reality and is thus difficult to estimate. Working with grouped data, a first natural choice is to apply disease mapping models. We apply a usual disease mapping model, producing continuous estimations of the risks that requires a post-processing classification step to obtain clearly delimited risk zones. We also apply a risk partition model that build a classification of the risk levels in a one step procedure. Working with point data, we will focus on the scan statistic clustering method. We illustrate our article with a real example concerning the bovin spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) an animal disease whose zones at risk are well known by the epidemiologists. We show that in this difficult case of a rare disease and a very heterogeneous population, the different methods provide risk zones that are globally coherent. But, related to the dichotomy between the need and the reality, the exact delimitation of the risk zones, as well as the corresponding estimated risks are quite different. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79861
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: INRA UR 346 F-63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France; NRIA Équipe Mistis, F-38334 Saint-Ismier, France; NRA UR 875, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France
Recommended Citation:
Charras-Garrido M,, Azizi L,, Forbes F,et al. On the difficulty to delimit disease risk hot spots[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2013-01-01,22(1)