DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2016.06.021
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84997702050
论文题名: Flood forecasting in Niger-Benue basin using satellite and quantitative precipitation forecast data
作者: Haile A ; T ; , Tefera F ; T ; , Rientjes T
刊名: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
ISSN: 15698432
出版年: 2016
卷: 52 起始页码: 475
结束页码: 484
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Benue river
; Flood forecast skill
; Flood forecasting
; HEC-HMS
; Precipitation forecasts
; Satellite rainfall product
Scopus关键词: early warning system
; error analysis
; flood forecasting
; precipitation assessment
; quantitative analysis
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; TRMM
; weather forecasting
; Benue River
; Niger Basin
英文摘要: Availability of reliable, timely and accurate rainfall data is constraining the establishment of flood forecasting and early warning systems in many parts of Africa. We evaluated the potential of satellite and weather forecast data as input to a parsimonious flood forecasting model to provide information for flood early warning in the central part of Nigeria. We calibrated the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model using rainfall data from post real time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi satellite Precipitation Analysis product (TMPA). Real time TMPA satellite rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were tested for flood forecasting. The implication of removing the systematic errors of the satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) was explored. Performance of the rainfall-runoff model was assessed using visual inspection of simulated and observed hydrographs and a set of performance indicators. The forecast skill was assessed for 1–6 days lead time using categorical verification statistics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), Frequency Of Hit (FOH) and Frequency Of Miss (FOM). The model performance satisfactorily reproduced the pattern and volume of the observed stream flow hydrograph of Benue River. Overall, our results show that SREs and rainfall forecasts from weather models have great potential to serve as model inputs for real-time flood forecasting in data scarce areas. For these data to receive application in African transboundary basins, we suggest (i) removing their systematic error to further improve flood forecast skill; (ii) improving rainfall forecasts; and (iii) improving data sharing between riparian countries. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80051
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Water Management Institute, P. O. Box 5 Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Arba Minch University, P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia; Department of Water Resources, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Hengelosestraat 99, Enschede 7514 AE, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Haile A,T,, Tefera F,et al. Flood forecasting in Niger-Benue basin using satellite and quantitative precipitation forecast data[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2016-01-01,52