AVHRR
; NOAA satellite
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; warming
; Coral Triangle
; Pacific Ocean
; South China Sea
; Anthozoa
英文摘要:
The ocean warming trend is a well-known global phenomenon. As early as 2001, and then reiterated in2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global average sea surfacetemperature (SST) will increase by about 0.2?C per decade. To date, however, only a limited number ofstudies have been published reporting the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the Indo-Pacific region, onethe richest marine ecosystems on Earth. In this research, the monthly 1?spatial resolution NOAA Opti-mum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature (SST) V2 dataset (OISSTv2) derived from measurementsmade by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and in situ measurements, were usedto examine the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the region. The multi-model mean SST from the Repre-sentative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6) mitigation scenario of the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 5 (CMIP5) was also used to forecast future SST from 2020 to 2100, decadally. Three variablesfrom the OISSTv2, namely maximum (MaxSST), mean (MeanSST) and minimum (MinSST) monthly meanSST, were regressed against time measured in months from 1982 to 2010 using linear regression. Resultsrevealed warming trends detected for all three SST variables. In the Coral Triangle a warming trend witha rate of 0.013?C year-1, 0.017�C year-1, and 0.019?C year-1was detected over 29 years for MaxSST,MeanSST and MinSST, respectively. In the SCS, the warming rate was 0.011?C year-1, (MaxSST), 0.012�Cyear-1(MeanSST) and 0.015�C year-1(MinSST) over 29 years. The CMIP5 RCP2.6 forecast suggested afuture warming rate to 2100 of 0.004�C year-1for both areas, and for all three SST variables. The warmingtrends reported in this study provide useful insights for improved marine-related management. � 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
University of Southampton, United Kingdom; Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Malaysia; University of Exeter, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Khalil I,, Atkinson P,M,et al. Looking back and looking forwards: Historical and future trends in seasurface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region from 1982 to 2100[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2016-01-01,45