DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2018.1464895
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85046028993
论文题名: A general equilibrium analysis of floor prices for China’s national carbon emissions trading system
作者: Weng Y ; , Zhang D ; , Lu L ; , Zhang X
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2018
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 11
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CGE model
; China emissions trading system
; floor price
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: China announced the official start of its national emissions trading system (ETS) construction programme in December 2017, making ETS the primary policy to achieve China’s domestic decarbonization targets and global climate change pledges. Unlike ETS designs in other regions, China’s ETS features a flexible cap that is linked to both reduced carbon intensity and activity levels. Therefore, total CO2 emissions are allowed to increase if economic growth is strong – an important design feature for developing countries that demand an increase in CO2 emissions at least in the near term. Therefore, to guarantee that the carbon price signal emerging from the ETS is strong enough to support the achievement of China’s climate change targets given uncertainties in economic growth, technology improvement and renewable energy development, China’s ETS needs a carbon price floor. In this study, we simulate carbon price paths in different scenarios representing different uncertainty realizations using the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM) and find that a price path of $4 before 2020, $8 between 2021 and 2025 and $12 between 2026 and 2030 (2011 constant price) is able to support the achievement of China’s climate pledges with a 90% chance. Therefore, this price path could be adopted as a feasible carbon price floor for China’s ETS. Key policy insightsA carbon price floor in China’s ETS is needed to achieve China’s climate pledges under uncertainty.Multiple dimensions of uncertainties need to be considered when estimating the carbon price floor.Under our representative estimation, the carbon floor price path needs to be set at $4 per ton before 2020, $8 per ton between 2021 and 2025, and $12 per ton between 2026 and 2030. © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80150
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Research Center for Contemporary Management, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China; MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, USA
Recommended Citation:
Weng Y,, Zhang D,, Lu L,et al. A general equilibrium analysis of floor prices for China’s national carbon emissions trading system[J]. Climate Policy,2018-01-01