DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1410090
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85038398602
论文题名: The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump
作者: Sprinz D ; F ; , Sælen H ; , Underdal A ; , Hovi J
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2017
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 11
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate clubs
; club goods
; conditional commitment
; mitigation
; Paris Agreement
; side-payments
; Trump administration
; US
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: On 1 June 2017, President Trump announced that the US intends to leave the Paris Agreement if no alternative terms acceptable to his administration can be agreed upon. In this article, an agent-based model of bottom-up climate mitigation clubs is used to derive the impact that lack of US participation may have on the membership of such clubs and their emissions coverage. We systematically analyse the prospects for climate mitigation clubs, depending on which of three conceivable roles the US takes on: as a leader (for benchmarking), as a follower (i.e. willing to join climate mitigation clubs initiated by others if this is in its best interest) or as an outsider (i.e. staying outside of any climate mitigation club no matter what). We investigate these prospects for three types of incentives for becoming a member: club goods, conditional commitments and side-payments. Our results show that lack of US leadership significantly constrains climate clubs’ potential. Lack of US willingness to follow others’ lead is an additional, but smaller constraint. Only in a few cases will US withdrawal entail widespread departures by other countries. We conclude that climate mitigation clubs can function without the participation of an important GHG emitter, given that other major emitters show leadership, although these clubs will rarely cover more than 50% of global emissions. Key policy insightsThe US switching from being a leader to being a follower substantially reduces the emissions coverage of climate mitigation clubs.The US switching from being a follower to being an outsider sometimes reduces coverage further, but has a smaller impact than the switch from leader to follower.The switch from follower to outsider only occasionally results in widespread departures by other countries; in a few instances it even entices others to join.Climate mitigation clubs can function even without the participation of the US, provided that other major emitters show leadership; however, such clubs will typically be unable to cover more than 50% of global emissions.Climate mitigation clubs may complement the Paris Agreement and can also serve as an alternative in case Paris fails. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80221
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: PIK – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Käte Hamburger Kolleg, Centre for Global Cooperation, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany; Yale MacMillan Center, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Political Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; CICERO – Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Sprinz D,F,, Sælen H,et al. The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump[J]. Climate Policy,2017-01-01