DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1388211
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85037739566
论文题名: China’s future emission reduction challenge and implications for global climate policy
作者: Jiang X ; , Green C
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2017
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 13
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon budget
; carbon emission reduction
; China
; Kaya identity
; renewable energy
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: In December 2015, China joined 190 plus nations at Paris in committing to the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below’ 2°C. Carbon budget analysis indicates that goal will require not only that the European Union and US reduce their emissions by greater than 80% by 2050, but that China at least comes close to doing so as well, if any budget is to be left over for the rest of the world (RoW). Given that RoW emissions are, and will come from, low-income and emerging nations, China’s emission reduction potential is of no small consequence. In this paper, we use the Kaya identity to back out changes in the drivers of CO2 emissions, including gross domestic product (GDP), energy intensity (E/GDP) and the carbon content of energy (C/E), the latter two calculated to be consistent with China’s long-term GDP growth rate forecasts and specified 2050 CO2 emission reduction targets. Our results suggest that even achieving China’s highly optimistic renewable energy targets will be very far from sufficient to reduce China’s CO2 emissions from 9.1 Gt it emitted in 2015 to much below 3 Gt by 2050. Even reducing its emissions to 5 Gt will be challenging, yet this falls far short of what is needed if the world is to meet its ‘well below’ 2°C commitment. Key policy insightsUnder the Paris Agreement there is great pressure on China to very substantially reduce its emissions by 2050.While China has attached great importance to renewables and nuclear energy development, even achieving the most optimistic targets would not be sufficient to reduce China’s emissions from 9.1 Gt in 2015 to much below 3 Gt by 2050.China’s emission reduction potential falls far short of what is needed if the world is to meet its Paris ‘well below’ 2°C commitment, even if the EU and US reduce their emissions to zero by 2050.Emission cuts consistent with the Paris Agreement will require that China and the world give much greater weight to advancing research and development of scalable low-, zero- and negative-carbon sources and technologies. © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80230
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Department of Economics, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Jiang X,, Green C. China’s future emission reduction challenge and implications for global climate policy[J]. Climate Policy,2017-01-01