DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1357528
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027194245
论文题名: Informing transparency in the Paris Agreement: the role of economic models
作者: Jacoby H ; D ; , Chen Y ; H ; H ; , Flannery B ; P
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2017
卷: 17, 期: 7 起始页码: 873
结束页码: 890
语种: 英语
英文关键词: greenhouse emissions
; integrated assessment models
; NDC
; Paris Agreement
; transparency
Scopus关键词: economic analysis
; emission
; greenhouse gas
; integrated approach
; international agreement
; policy analysis
; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: Establishing a credible and effective transparency regime to support the Paris Agreement–broader than its formal ‘transparency framework’–will be both crucial and challenging. The Agreement provides for review of achievements under national pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), but much of this information will become available only well after key steps in the launch of this latest attempt to control human influence on the climate. Still, in these early years, information and understanding of individual and collective performance, and of relative national burdens under the NDCs, will play an important role in the success or failure of the Agreement. However, because of the phasing of various steps in the 5-year cycles under the Agreement and the unavoidable delays of two or more years to produce and review government reports, the Climate Convention and other intergovernmental institutions are ill-suited to carry out timely analyses of progress. Consequently, in advance of formal procedures, academic and other non-governmental groups are going to provide analyses based on available data and their own methodologies. The article explores this transparency challenge–using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to construct sample analyses–and considers ways that efforts outside official channels can contribute to the success of the Agreement. Key policy insights: Because key national decisions are faced before full implementation of the transparency framework, being negotiated by the Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement (APA), urgent attention is needed to activities supporting the regime’s system of pledge and review. Outcomes of these APA negotiations, explored here, including features of reported NDCs and guidelines for tracking progress, will influence the effectiveness of the Agreement in encouraging greater mitigation effort. Whatever the outcome of the APA negotiations, studies by academic and other non-governmental analysis groups will in the near term have a particularly great influence on the transparency objectives of the Agreement. Challenges to the provision by these groups of clear, coherent, credible analyses are explored, leading to recommendations for improved documentation of methods and standards of practice in analysis. © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80252
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jacoby H,D,, Chen Y,et al. Informing transparency in the Paris Agreement: the role of economic models[J]. Climate Policy,2017-01-01,17(7)