DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1075373
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940203641
论文题名: Russia’s 2020 GHG emissions target: Emission trends and implementation
作者: Korppoo A ; , Kokorin A
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2017
卷: 17, 期: 2 起始页码: 113
结束页码: 130
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate policy
; emission scenarios
; GHG emissions
; mitigation measures
; Russia
Scopus关键词: climate change
; emission inventory
; environmental policy
; future prospect
; greenhouse gas
; Gross Domestic Product
; mitigation
; policy implementation
; targeting
; Russian Federation
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: This article provides an overview of the recent modelling results on Russia's GHG emission trends, and reviews the success of mitigation policies in order to establish whether Russia's domestic target seems feasible. Various Russian GHG emission scenarios indicate that Russia's domestic target–emissions 25% below the 1990 level by 2020–is not far from the business-as-usual emissions trajectory. In particular, two factors could deliver the required emissions reductions: the currently declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth and ongoing domestic mitigation policies. The former is more likely to secure the target level of emissions, because GDP growth has been contracting significantly in comparison to earlier forecasts of 3–5% annual growth, and this trend is expected to continue. The latter option–success with domestic mitigation measures–seems less likely, given the various meta-barriers to policy implementation, and the marginality of mitigation policies, problems with law-making processes, bureaucratic tradition, and informality of legislative and implementation systems. Policy relevance This article provides an assessment of the stringency of Russia's domestically set emissions limitation target by 2020 and the chances of Russia, the fourth largest GHG emitter in the world, achieving it. We base our assessment on a number of recent key sources that analyse Russia's GHG emission paths by applying socio-economic models, which have only been available in the Russian language prior to this publication. This knowledge is applicable for use by other negotiation parties to compare Russia's efforts to mitigate climate change to their own, and thus makes a contribution to facilitating a more equal burden-sharing of climate commitments under the future climate change agreement. © 2015 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80316
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Fridtjof Nansen Institute, PO Box 326, Lysaker, Norway; Academy of Finland, Pan-European Institute, Turku School of Economics, Finland; Climate Change Programme, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Moscow, Nikoloyamskaya St.19, Building 3, Moscow, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Korppoo A,, Kokorin A. Russia’s 2020 GHG emissions target: Emission trends and implementation[J]. Climate Policy,2017-01-01,17(2)