DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.953907
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84938418608
论文题名: Macroeconomic analysis of the employment impacts of future EU climate policies
作者: Pollitt H ; , Alexandri E ; , Chewpreecha U ; , Klaassen G
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2015
卷: 15, 期: 5 起始页码: 604
结束页码: 625
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate policy
; employment
; energy efficiency
; macroeconomic modelling
; renewables
Scopus关键词: carbon emission
; climate change
; economic analysis
; economic impact
; employment
; energy efficiency
; environmental policy
; European Union
; greenhouse gas
; macroeconomics
; renewable resource
; Europe
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: This article gives a detailed account of part of the modelling that was carried out for the assessment of the EU's proposed energy and climate targets for 2030. Using the macro-econometric simulation model, E3ME, and drawing on results from the PRIMES energy systems model, it shows that a 40% reduction in GHG emissions (compared to 1990 levels) could lead to an increase in employment of up to 0.7 million jobs in Europe. Furthermore, if the same GHG reduction target was combined with targets for renewables and energy efficiency, the net increase in jobs could be as high as 1.2 million. Both results are in contrast to the standard findings from computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, reflecting the different underlying assumptions (e.g. labour supply) to the modelling approach. Additional sensitivity testing shows that the ways in which the energy efficiency and renewable measures are funded are important factors in determining overall economic impact. Policy relevance In recent years there has been much debate as to whether the European Union should have a single GHG reduction target or a set of targets that also cover renewables and energy efficiency. This paper elaborates on part of the modelling that was carried out for the official assessment of the European Union's proposed energy and climate targets for 2030. Using an empirical, model-based approach, it compares a scenario where there is a single 40% GHG reduction target to a scenario that also includes a 30% renewables target and stricter energy efficiency standards. The model results show that the large investment stimulus needed to meet the combined targets leads to higher levels of GDP and employment. This suggests that there could be medium-term economic and social benefits to including all three targets in the future energy and climate package. © 2014 Taylor & Francis. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80414
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Cambridge Econometrics, Covent Garden, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Directorate General for Climate Action, European Commission, Avenue de Beaulieu, Brussels, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Pollitt H,, Alexandri E,, Chewpreecha U,et al. Macroeconomic analysis of the employment impacts of future EU climate policies[J]. Climate Policy,2015-01-01,15(5)