DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066072
论文题名: Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future
作者: Moftakhari H.R. ; AghaKouchak A. ; Sanders B.F. ; Feldman D.L. ; Sweet W. ; Matthew R.A. ; Luke A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8432
EISSN: 1944-8163
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 22 起始页码: 9846
结束页码: 9852
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change impacts
; coastal region
; nuisance flooding
; sea level rise
; socio-economic threat
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Floods
; Greenhouse gases
; Health risks
; Losses
; Public risks
; Sea level
; Anthropogenic activity
; Climate change impact
; Coastal regions
; Greenhouse gases emissions
; Non destructive
; Sea level rise
; Socio-economic impacts
; Socio-economics
; Coastal zones
; climate change
; climate effect
; coastal zone
; flooding
; future prospect
; geodetic datum
; greenhouse gas
; health risk
; human activity
; public health
; risk assessment
; sea level change
; socioeconomic impact
; spatiotemporal analysis
; tidal range
; trajectory
; vulnerability
; United States
英文摘要: Mean sea level has risen tenfold in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia, posing a serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. An increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has also been reported due to the reduced gap between high tidal datums and flood stage, and the rate of sea level rise (SLR) is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gases emissions. Nuisance flooding (NF), however nondestructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take projected near-term (2030) and midterm (2050) SLR under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, to estimate the increase in NF. The results suggest that on average, - 80 ± 10% local SLR causes the median of the NF distribution to increase by 55 ± 35% in 2050 under RCP8.5. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks in coastal regions. Key Points Nuisance flooding substantially increases in a warming climate An ~80% increase in sea level by 2050 increases nuisance flooding by ~55% Increased nuisance flooding leads to socio-economic and public health impacts. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956876526&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066072&partnerID=40&md5=54c3a1a2c901986acb5b83b009b239b8
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8048
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Moftakhari H.R.,AghaKouchak A.,Sanders B.F.,et al. Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(22).