DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066697
论文题名: A definition for rapid weakening of North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones
作者: Wood K.M. ; Ritchie E.A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8434
EISSN: 1944-8165
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 22 起始页码: 10091
结束页码: 10097
语种: 英语
英文关键词: tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Eastern north pacific
; Forecast errors
; North Atlantic
; Over water
; Sea Surface Temperature gradients
; Tropical cyclone
; Vertical wind shear
; Storms
; error analysis
; forecasting method
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; statistical analysis
; strength
; temperature gradient
; temporal variation
; threshold
; tropical cyclone
; wind shear
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Northeast)
英文摘要: Periods of 24 h over-water weakening during 1982-2013 for North Atlantic (NAL) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) tropical cyclones (TCs) are examined to determine a threshold for rapid weakening (RW). These periods are defined by consistent weakening while the TC center remained more than 50 km from land. Weakening thresholds of 25, 30, and 35 kt represent the 87th (69th), 94th (80th), and 97th (89th) percentile in the NAL (ENP). Based on these statistics, the 30 kt threshold is chosen to define RW. Compared to all weakening periods, RW events are generally associated with greater 24 h official forecast errors, and these errors tend to be overestimates in both basins. These events usually occur as the TC crosses a sharp sea surface temperature gradient, encounters greater vertical wind shear, and entrains drier air. These metrics may be useful to forecasters assessing the likelihood of RW. Key Points Rapid weakening is defined as a 30 kt decrease in intensity in 24 h Rapid weakening is more common in the eastern North Pacific than the North Atlantic Rapid weakening is associated with a combination of negative environmental factors. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956899679&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066697&partnerID=40&md5=56d1efd1568806d00d9fa2706f75b17c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8050
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wood K.M.,Ritchie E.A.. A definition for rapid weakening of North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(22).