DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.09.004
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907070869
论文题名: Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast
作者: Neal L ; S ; , Agnew P ; , Moseley S ; , Ordo´n&tild ; ez C ; , Savage N ; H ; , Tilbee M
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 98 起始页码: 385
结束页码: 393
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air quality forecast
; Bias correction
; Ozone
; Particulate matter
Scopus关键词: Air quality forecasts
; Bias correction
; Particulate Matter
; Post-processing techniques
; Ozone
; nitrogen dioxide
; ozone
; air quality
; atmospheric correction
; forecasting method
; particulate matter
; pollution monitoring
; statistical application
; air pollution
; air quality
; Article
; forecasting
; mathematical and statistical procedures
; particle size
; particulate matter
; statistical post processing of observation
; United Kingdom
; United Kingdom
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53 μg m-3 for O3, from -4.70 to -0.63 μg m-3 for NO2, from -4.00 to -0.13 μg m-3 for PM2.5 and from -7.70 to -0.25 μg m-3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead. © 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80548
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Neal L,S,, Agnew P,et al. Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,98