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DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066384
论文题名:
Distinct effects of global mean warming and regional sea surface warming pattern on projected uncertainty in the South Asian summer monsoon
作者: Chen X.; Zhou T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8447
EISSN: 1944-8178
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:21
起始页码: 9433
结束页码: 9439
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 models ; global mean warming ; Indo-Pacific warming pattern ; projected uncertainty ; South Asian summer monsoon
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Electric power system interconnection ; Rain ; Surface waters ; Temperature ; Uncertainty analysis ; Asian summer monsoons ; Climate model simulations ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Global mean warming ; Global temperature change ; Projected uncertainty ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Warming patterns ; Oceanography ; climate modeling ; data set ; global warming ; moisture transfer ; monsoon ; regional climate ; sea surface temperature ; sensitivity analysis ; summer ; temperature gradient ; thermodynamics ; uncertainty analysis ; Indian Ocean ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific Ocean (Central) ; South Asia
英文摘要: Significant uncertainties in the projected South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) have been observed in the released Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) data set. Knowing what factors dominate the uncertainties is critical to constraining the local climate changes. Analyzing state-of-the-art climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that uncertainties in the circulation primarily result from the divergent global mean warming across models. In contrast, the compensation between dynamic and thermodynamic effects makes the spread in monsoon rainfall independent of the global temperature change. Via a suite of sensitivity experiments, we identify that the uncertainties in the SASM rainfall are dominated by the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern, especially around the western central Pacific. The SST warming pattern plays its role by changing the zonal temperature gradient over the SASM region and modulating the interhemispheric moisture transport. We highlight that the SST warming patterns require more attention in constraining the projected regional rainfall changes. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955180717&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066384&partnerID=40&md5=6e96e04e78fcfd723b0178eb16d56dea
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8063
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Chen X.,Zhou T.. Distinct effects of global mean warming and regional sea surface warming pattern on projected uncertainty in the South Asian summer monsoon[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(21).
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