| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL066063
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| 论文题名: | The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall |
| 作者: | Spracklen D.V.; Garcia-Carreras L.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8453
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| EISSN: | 1944-8184
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:21 | | 起始页码: | 9546
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| 结束页码: | 9552
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate model
; deforestation
; rainfall
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Deforestation
; Business-as-usual
; Global climate model simulations
; Interannual variability
; Linear relationships
; Natural variability
; Non-linear response
; Simulated rainfall
; Surface parameter
; Rain
; anthropogenic effect
; climate modeling
; deforestation
; global climate
; meta-analysis
; nonlinearity
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; Amazon Basin
; Amazonia
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| 英文摘要: | We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955173296&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066063&partnerID=40&md5=bb32fbd8d06e44c390ad580fdd9c23c4
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8069
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Spracklen D.V.,Garcia-Carreras L.. The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(21).
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