DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.07.010
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84903848389
论文题名: Screening sensitivity analysis of a radionuclides atmospheric dispersion model applied to the Fukushima disaster
作者: Girard S ; , Korsakissok I ; , Mallet V
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 95 起始页码: 490
结束页码: 500
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric dispersion
; Fukushima
; Morris method
; Polyphemus/Polair3D
; Sensitivity analysis
Scopus关键词: Disasters
; Nuclear reactor accidents
; Radioisotopes
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Atmospheric activity
; Atmospheric dispersion
; Atmospheric dispersion modeling
; Fukushima
; Morris method
; Performance indicators
; Polyphemus/Polair3D
; Source term estimation
; Atmospheric movements
; cesium
; iodine
; radioisotope
; dispersion
; flow modeling
; nuclear accident
; radionuclide
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; wind field
; article
; atmospheric dispersion
; dry deposition
; Fukushima nuclear accident
; population exposure
; principal component analysis
; priority journal
; probability
; screening
; sensitivity analysis
; time series analysis
; uncertainty
; wet deposition
; wind
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Numerical models used to forecast the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides following nuclear accidents are subject to substantial uncertainties. Input data, such as meteorological forecasts or source term estimations, as well as poorly known model parameters contribute for a large part to this uncertainty.A sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris was carried out in the case of the Fukushima disaster as a first step towards the uncertainty analysis of the Polyphemus/Polair3D model. The main difficulties stemmed from the high dimension of the model's input and output. Simple perturbations whose magnitudes were devised from a thorough literature review were applied to 19 uncertain inputs. Several outputs related to atmospheric activity and ground deposition were aggregated, revealing different inputs rankings. Other inputs based on gamma dose rates measurements were used to question the possibility of calibrating the inputs uncertainties.Some inputs, such as the cloud layer thickness, were found to have little influence on most considered outputs and could therefore be safely discarded from further studies. On the contrary, wind perturbations and emission factors for iodine and caesium are predominant. The performance indicators derived from dose rates observations displayed strong sensitivities. This emphasises the share of the overall uncertainty due to input uncertainties and asserts the relevance of the simple perturbation scheme that was employed in this work © 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80918
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institut de radioprotection et de sÛreté nucléaire, 31, avenue de la Division Leclerc, 92260, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France; Inria, Domaine de Voluceau, BP 105, 78153, Le Chesnay Cedex, France; CEREA, Joint Laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech/EDF R and D, Université Paris Est, Marne-la-Vallée, France
Recommended Citation:
Girard S,, Korsakissok I,, Mallet V. Screening sensitivity analysis of a radionuclides atmospheric dispersion model applied to the Fukushima disaster[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,95