DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065764
论文题名: A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
作者: Grams C.M. ; Lang S.T.K. ; Keller J.H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8484
EISSN: 1944-8215
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 21 起始页码: 9521
结束页码: 9529
语种: 英语
英文关键词: forecast skill
; Hurricane Sandy
; numerical weather prediction
; predictability
; Rossby waves
; tropical cyclone
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Mechanical waves
; Storms
; Tropics
; Degree of sensitivity
; Experimental simulations
; Extratropical transition
; Numerical weather prediction
; Predictability
; Quantitative assessments
; Rossby wave
; Tropical cyclone
; Weather forecasting
; assessment method
; climate prediction
; cyclogenesis
; error analysis
; extratropical environment
; flow pattern
; forecasting method
; Hurricane Sandy 2012
; midlatitude environment
; numerical model
; prediction
; quantitative analysis
; Rossby wave
; sensitivity analysis
; transition zone
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the "equivalent forecast hour difference," is introduced and applied to experimental simulations for eight recent ET events, in which the TC has been removed or relocated. Early during ET, the midlatitude flow response is sensitive to ridgebuilding directly downstream of the transitioning TC. In cases with strong ridgebuilding and Rossby wave triggering, the sensitivity remains high. The midlatitude flow response is even more sensitive to error in the initial position of the TC. This study newly quantifies the high degree of sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to ET. It corroborates the need for correct tropical cyclogenesis and TC track forecasts for improving midlatitude numerical weather prediction during ET. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955184925&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065764&partnerID=40&md5=4e8810f78ed31958f1d74f1da74efae4
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8100
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Grams C.M.,Lang S.T.K.,Keller J.H.. A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(21).