| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065508
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| 论文题名: | Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models |
| 作者: | Lyu K.; Zhang X.; Church J.A.; Hu J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8501
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| EISSN: | 1944-8232
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:21 | | 起始页码: | 9394
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| 结束页码: | 9403
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate model
; external forcing
; internal variability
; sea level
; surface air temperature
; variance analysis
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Earth (planet)
; Sea level
; Climate mitigations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; External forcing
; Fixed time interval
; Historical periods
; Internal variability
; Surface air temperatures
; Variance analysis
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; climate signal
; latitude
; quantitative analysis
; regional climate
; sea level change
; surface temperature
; thermosphere
; tropical region
; twenty first century
; variance analysis
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| 英文摘要: | The Earth's climate evolves because of both internal variability and external forcings. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, here we quantify the ratio of externally forced variance to total variance on interannual and longer time scales for regional surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level, which depends on the relative strength of externally forced signal compared to internal variability. The highest ratios are found in tropical areas for SAT but at high latitudes for sea level over the historical period when ocean dynamics and global mean thermosteric contributions are considered. Averaged globally, the ratios over a fixed time interval (e.g., 30 years) are projected to increase during the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In contrast, under two mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5), the ratio declines sharply by the end of the 21st century for SAT, but only declines slightly or stabilizes for sea level, indicating a slower response of sea level to climate mitigation. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84954512049&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065508&partnerID=40&md5=8e2f2eb9610fe09ee6eef667d904312d
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8117
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lyu K.,Zhang X.,Church J.A.,et al. Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(21).
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