DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.05.061
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937872993
论文题名: Assimilating aircraft-based measurements to improve forecast accuracy of volcanic ash transport
作者: Fu G ; , Lin H ; X ; , Heemink A ; W ; , Segers A ; J ; , Lu S ; , Palsson T
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 115 起始页码: 170
结束页码: 184
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aircraft-based measurements
; Data assimilation
; Uncertainties
; Volcanic ash forecast
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Fighter aircraft
; Forecasting
; Uncertainty analysis
; Assimilation system
; Data assimilation
; Data assimilation techniques
; Initial conditions
; Transport modeling
; Uncertainties
; Volcanic ash
; Volcanic ash transports
; Volcanoes
; accuracy assessment
; airborne survey
; data assimilation
; decision making
; diffusion
; forecasting method
; plume
; transport process
; uncertainty analysis
; volcanic ash
; volcanic eruption
; accuracy
; aircraft
; Article
; atmospheric dispersion
; aviation
; cloud
; forecasting
; human
; measurement
; particle size
; plume
; priority journal
; uncertainty
; volcanic ash
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash transport forecast in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be run with Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) such as plume height and mass eruption rate as input, and with data assimilation techniques to continuously improve the initial conditions of the forecast. Reliable and accurate ash measurements are crucial for providing a successful ash clouds advice. In this paper, simulated aircraft-based measurements, as one type of volcanic ash measurements, will be assimilated into a transport model to identify the potential benefit of this kind of observations in an assimilation system. The results show assimilating aircraft-based measurements can significantly improve the state of ash clouds, and further providing an improved forecast as aviation advice. We also show that for advice of aeroplane flying level, aircraft-based measurements should be preferably taken from this level to obtain the best performance on it. Furthermore it is shown that in order to make an acceptable advice for aviation decision makers, accurate knowledge about uncertainties of ESPs and measurements is of great importance. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81643
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Dept. of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 4, Delft, Netherlands; TNO, Dept. of Climate, Air and Sustainability, P.O. Box 80015, Utrecht, Netherlands; School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland
Recommended Citation:
Fu G,, Lin H,X,et al. Assimilating aircraft-based measurements to improve forecast accuracy of volcanic ash transport[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015-01-01,115