DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.06.001
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937843611
论文题名: Modelling the future distribution of ammonium nitrate concentrations in The Netherlands for 2020: The sensitivity to meteorological parameters
作者: Williams J ; E ; , van der Swaluw E ; , de Vries W ; J ; , Sauter F ; J ; , van Pul W ; A ; J ; , Hoogerbrugge R
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 115 起始页码: 278
结束页码: 285
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ammonium nitrate
; Future estimates
; Secondary Inorganic Aerosols
; Source-receptor modeling
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Nitrates
; Ammonium nitrate
; Concentration fields
; Future estimates
; Meteorological fields
; Meteorological parameters
; Secondary inorganic aerosol
; Source-receptor modeling
; Temperature dependent
; Uncertainty analysis
; ammonia
; ammonium nitrate
; nitrogen dioxide
; sulfur dioxide
; aerosol
; ammonium
; atmospheric chemistry
; atmospheric modeling
; concentration (composition)
; economic analysis
; meteorology
; nitrate
; nitrogen dioxide
; numerical model
; parameterization
; relative humidity
; sensitivity analysis
; sulfur dioxide
; Article
; boundary layer
; chemical parameters
; chemical reaction
; concentration (parameters)
; controlled study
; environmental temperature
; evaporation
; geographic and geological parameters
; historical period
; humidity
; meteorological phenomena
; meteorology
; Netherlands
; positive feedback
; precipitation
; priority journal
; Netherlands
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: We present a parameterization developed to simulate Ammonium particle (NH4 +) concentrations in the Operational Priority Substances (OPS) source-receptor model, without the necessity of using a detailed chemical scheme. By using the ratios of the main pre-cursor gases SO2 , NO2 and NH3 , and utilising calculations performed using a chemical box-model, we show that the parameterization can simulate annual mean NH4 + concentration fields to within ~15% of measured values at locations throughout the Netherlands. Performing simulations for different decades, we find a strong correlation of simulated NH4 + distributions for both past (1993-1995) and present (2009-2012) time periods. Although the total concentration of NH4 + has decreased over the period, we find that the fraction of NH4 + transported into the Netherlands has increased from around 40% in the past to 50% for present-day. This is due to the variable efficiency of mitigation practises across economic sectors. Performing simulations for the year 2020 using associated emission estimates, we show that there are generally decreases of ~8-25% compared to present day concentrations. By altering the meteorological fields applied in the future simulations, we show that a significant uncertainty of between ~50 and 100% exists on this estimated NH4 + distribution as a result of variability in the temperature dependent emission terms and relative humidity. Therefore, any projections of future NH4 + distributions should be performed using well chosen meteorological fields representing recent meteorological situations. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81680
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Utrechtseweg 297, De Bilt, Netherlands; National Institute for Public Health and The Environment, Centre for Environmental Monitoring, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Williams J,E,, van der Swaluw E,et al. Modelling the future distribution of ammonium nitrate concentrations in The Netherlands for 2020: The sensitivity to meteorological parameters[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015-01-01,115