DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065909
论文题名: Unraveling the missing link of ENSO control over the Indian monsoon rainfall
作者: Dwivedi S. ; Goswami B.N. ; Kucharski F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8573
EISSN: 1944-8304
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 19 起始页码: 8201
结束页码: 8207
语种: 英语
英文关键词: active and break spells
; ENSO
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Modulation
; Nickel
; Active and break spells
; Daily rainfall
; ENSO
; Indian monsoon rainfall
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
; Seasonal prediction
; Southern oscillation
; Teleconnections
; Rain
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; La Nina
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; teleconnection
; India
英文摘要: Using long daily rainfall (113 years) data, clear evidence of modulation of the statistics of subseasonal active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is unraveled. We show that during the El Niño (La Nina) years, the frequency of longer break (active) spells and shorter active (break) spells increases substantially, while the frequency of shorter breaks (active) and longer active (break) spells decreases compared to ENSO neutral years. It is shown that the large-scale teleconnection through which ENSO weakens (strengthens) the ISMR through shortening (lengthening) of the length of rainy season (LRS) also creates a background for modulation of the statistics of subseasonal spells leading to a further reduction (increase) in the ISMR during El Niño (La Niña) years. Our findings indicate that the "statistics of subseasonal spells" is predictable, brightening the prospect of seasonal prediction of the ISMR. Key Points A unified mechanism of ENSO control on South Asian monsoon rainfall is unraveled Monsoon "internal" variability is modulated by the ENSO and hence may be predictable Potential predictability of the ISMR is higher than previously estimated © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84947028098&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065909&partnerID=40&md5=0f86ade050fd08e2e742b1166117e2fa
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8189
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: K Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India
Recommended Citation:
Dwivedi S.,Goswami B.N.,Kucharski F.. Unraveling the missing link of ENSO control over the Indian monsoon rainfall[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(19).