DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065860
论文题名: Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook
作者: Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E. ; Cullather R.I. ; Wang W. ; Zhang J. ; Bitz C.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8583
EISSN: 1944-8314
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 19 起始页码: 8042
结束页码: 8048
语种: 英语
英文关键词: predictability
; sea ice
Scopus关键词: Ice
; Sea ice
; Arctic sea ice
; Dynamical model
; Forecast uncertainty
; Initial conditions
; Model forecasts
; predictability
; Sea-ice thickness
; Sensitivity to initial conditions
; Forecasting
; forecasting method
; hindcasting
; model test
; prediction
; sea ice
; sensitivity analysis
; spatiotemporal analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed -1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty. Key Points Forecasts from Sea Ice Outlook dynamical modeals are skillful at1-2 month lead times SIO forecast skill is less than expected from sea ice hindcasts Initial-condition perturbation experiment shows importance of model physics to forecast uncertainty © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946926587&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065860&partnerID=40&md5=d4b45b0fc4efb15b5bad765dff874364
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8199
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.,Cullather R.I.,Wang W.,et al. Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(19).