DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064888
论文题名: Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures
作者: Cowtan K. ; Hausfather Z. ; Hawkins E. ; Jacobs P. ; Mann M.E. ; Miller S.K. ; Steinman B.A. ; Stolpe M.B. ; Way R.G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8601
EISSN: 1944-8332
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 15 起始页码: 6526
结束页码: 6534
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate models
; temperature record
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Climate model simulations
; Global-mean temperature
; Radiative forcings
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Surface air temperatures
; Surface temperature changes
; Surface temperatures
; Systematic bias
; Climate models
; air temperature
; air-sea interaction
; climate modeling
; observational method
; policy making
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
英文摘要: The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975-2014. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84940448425&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064888&partnerID=40&md5=e09162d683548d0349f4f34cff9c710c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8217
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Cowtan K.,Hausfather Z.,Hawkins E.,et al. Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(15).