DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.050
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85001099614
论文题名: An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE
作者: Kukkonen J ; , Nikmo J ; , Riikonen K
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2017
卷: 150 起始页码: 198
结束页码: 209
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Desert Tortoise
; Heavy gas dispersion
; Model evaluation
; Real-time hazard modelling
; Thorney Island
; Web browser based application
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Cellular telephone systems
; Chemical analysis
; Expert systems
; Forecasting
; Geographic information systems
; Laptop computers
; Weather forecasting
; Browser-based application
; Desert Tortoise
; Hazard modelling
; Heavy gas
; Model evaluation
; Thorney Island
; Atmospheric movements
; atmospheric gas
; atmospheric modeling
; climate prediction
; concentration (composition)
; design
; dispersion
; experimental study
; GIS
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; real time
; software
; valuation
; air
; Article
; atmospheric dispersion
; chemical reaction
; desert
; Internet
; knowledge
; mass
; mathematical model
; nonhuman
; plume
; prediction
; priority journal
; temperature
; tortoise
; weather
; web browser
; England
; Thorney Island
; United Kingdom
; West Sussex
; Gopherus agassizii
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: We present a refined version of a mathematical model called ESCAPE, “Expert System for Consequence Analysis and Preparing for Emergencies”. The model has been designed for evaluating the releases of toxic and flammable gases into the atmosphere, their atmospheric dispersion and the effects on humans and the environment. We describe (i) the mathematical treatments of this model, (ii) a verification and evaluation of the model against selected experimental field data, and (iii) a new operational implementation of the model. The new mathematical treatments include state-of-the-art atmospheric vertical profiles and new submodels for dense gas and passive atmospheric dispersion. The model performance was first successfully verified using the data of the Thorney Island campaign, and then evaluated against the Desert Tortoise campaign. For the latter campaign, the geometric mean bias was 1.72 (this corresponds to an underprediction of approximately 70%) and 0.71 (overprediction of approximately 30%) for the concentration and the plume half-width, respectively. The geometric variance was <1.5 (this corresponds to an agreement that is better than a factor of two). These values can be considered to indicate a good agreement of predictions and data, in comparison to values evaluated for a range of other similar models. The model has also been adapted to be able to automatically use the real time predictions and forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM, “HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model”. The operational implementation of the ESCAPE modelling system can be accessed anywhere using internet browsers, on laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones. The predicted results can be post-processed using geographic information systems. The model has already proved to be a useful tool of assessment for the needs of emergency response authorities in contingency planning. © 2016 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/82264
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, P.O. Box 503, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Kukkonen J,, Nikmo J,, Riikonen K. An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,150