DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064884
论文题名: The recent hiatus in global warming of the land surface: Scale-dependent breakpoint occurrences in space and time
作者: Ying L. ; Shen Z. ; Piao S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8619
EISSN: 1944-8350
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 15 起始页码: 6471
结束页码: 6478
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Asia midlatitude in winter
; scale-dependent temperature trend change
; statistical method
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Piecewise linear techniques
; Statistical methods
; Surface measurement
; Land surface temperature
; Mean annual temperatures
; Midlatitudes
; Piecewise linear regression
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Spatiotemporal heterogeneities
; Spatiotemporal patterns
; Temperature trends
; Scales (weighing instruments)
; global warming
; heterogeneity
; hiatus
; land surface
; Northern Hemisphere
; Southern Hemisphere
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature effect
; trend analysis
英文摘要: The spatial and temporal variability of the recent land warming hiatus have seldom been explored, despite their importance for understanding the mechanisms underlying the phenomenon. In this study, we applied piecewise linear regression to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the breakpoint time of warming over 40 years (1974-2013). Our results showed that at the global scale, mean annual temperature (MAT) over the land increased significantly until 2005 and that the warming trend then stalled. However, the breakpoint time of the warming varied greatly among different seasons and continents. We found no statistically significant breakpoint in MAT over the Northern Hemisphere, but MAT over the Southern Hemisphere showed a significant breakpoint (P < 0.001) in 1979. At the seasonal scale, only the winter season (December-January-February) showed a statistically significant breakpoint in global land temperature. The other seasons showed continuous increasing temperature during the whole study period. Our study examined the recent global warming hiatus on the land surface using an area-weighted summary of a scale-dependent phenomenon with substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity and revealed the winter cooling in the Northern Hemisphere low-middle latitudes in 1999-2008 as the major contributor to the global warming hiatus on land surface in 2005. This result highlights the importance of using a statistical method to identify the timing of climate phase change. A better understanding of the processes behind the spatiotemporal patterns of local-scale breakpoint occurrences in land surface temperature would shed new light on the mechanisms of the recent global warming hiatus. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84940447660&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064884&partnerID=40&md5=83072dcddb3f1dcbeaa05656d5f7d403
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8235
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Ecology, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, MOE Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes, Peking University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Ying L.,Shen Z.,Piao S.. The recent hiatus in global warming of the land surface: Scale-dependent breakpoint occurrences in space and time[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(15).