Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要:
Air pollution and climate change are increasing threats to agricultural production and food security. Extensive studies have focused on the effect of climate change, but the interactive effects of multiple global change factors are poorly understood. Here, we incorporate the interactions between climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) into an eco-physiological mechanistic model based on three years of O3Free-Air Concentration Elevation (O3-FACE) experiments. We then investigate the effects of climate change, elevated CO2concentration ([CO2]) and rising O3concentration ([O3]) on wheat growth and productivity in eastern China in 1996–2005 (2000s) and 2016–2025 (2020s) under two climate change scenarios, singly and in combination. We find the interactive effects of climate change, CO2and O3on wheat productivity have spatially explicit patterns; the effect of climate change dominates the general pattern, which is however subject to the large uncertainties of climate change scenarios. Wheat productivity is estimated to increase by 2.8–9.0% due to elevated [CO2] however decline by 2.8–11.7% due to rising [O3] in the 2020s, relative to the 2000s. The combined effects of CO2and O3are less than that of O3only, on average by 4.6–5.2%, however with O3damage outweighing CO2benefit in most of the region. This study demonstrates a more biologically meaningful and appropriate approach for assessing the interactive effects of climate change, CO2and O3on crop growth and productivity. Our findings promote the understanding on the interactive effects of multiple global change factors across contrasting climate conditions, cast doubt on the potential of CO2fertilization effect in offsetting possible negative effect of climate change on crop productivity as suggested by many previous studies. � 2017 Elsevier Ltd
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Tao F,, Feng Z,, Tang H,et al. Effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity in Eastern China, singly and in combination[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,153