DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064609
论文题名: A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts
作者: Judt F. ; Chen S.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8641
EISSN: 1944-8372
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 14 起始页码: 6043
结束页码: 6050
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climatology
; hurricane
; predictability
; predictive skill
; rapid intensification
; tropical cyclone
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Fighter aircraft
; Forecasting
; Microwave devices
; Storms
; Weather forecasting
; Wind
; Hurricane hunter aircraft
; Hurricane-intensity forecast
; predictability
; predictive skill
; Rapid intensification
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Hurricanes
; aircraft
; climatology
; ensemble forecasting
; hurricane
; microwave radiometer
; model validation
; open ocean
; prediction
; storm
; tropical cyclone
; United States
英文摘要: Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010). © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938972873&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064609&partnerID=40&md5=4bab6176835d553a9f80108119362b0e
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8257
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Judt F.,Chen S.S.. A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(14).