Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions
Aerosols
; Air quality
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Earth atmosphere
; Optical properties
; Particulate emissions
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Quality control
; Aerosol-cloud interaction
; CESM/CAM5
; Comprehensive evaluation
; El Nino southern oscillation
; Emission change
; Global climate changes
; North Carolina State University
; Representative concentration pathways
; Climate change
; methane
; sodium chloride
; aerosol
; aerosol property
; air quality
; anthropogenic source
; cloud
; concentration (composition)
; emission
; environmental policy
; future prospect
; optical depth
; software
; solar radiation
; trend analysis
; aerosol
; air quality
; Article
; atmosphere
; Central Africa
; climate change
; cloud
; El Nino
; environmental policy
; environmental radioactivity
; exhaust gas
; futurology
; gas
; greenhouse effect
; human
; optical depth
; precipitation
; priority journal
; radiative forcing
; sea
; solar radiation
; South Asia
; surface property
; tropics
Scopus学科分类:
Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要:
Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3which decreases by global mean of 1.4�ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3�ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2�μg�m−3under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2�μg�m−3under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1�W�m−2and 2.0�W�m−2in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2��C from a global average increase of 0.7�W�m−2in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. � 2016 Elsevier Ltd
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Glotfelty T,, Zhang Y. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,152